Quick summary: Popular behavioural science books often oversimplify research findings, leading readers to expect more certainty from the science than is justified. Human behaviour is too complex and dynamic to be reliably predicted through the controlled experiments and statistical methods that underpin most behavioural science claims. Approaching these sources with a scientific mindset, testing their recommendations critically, and managing expectations for guaranteed results will produce more grounded and effective decisions in both professional and personal contexts.
Here is a story about relying on popular science that is not unusual in these times: Irene and two colleagues decided to start their own business. Irene focused on business development, attracting other businesses to use their services. A popular behavioural science book convinced Irene that she could use the predictability of people’s biased decision-making to guarantee that prospective customers would select her firm’s services.
Irene assumed that employing recommendations from behavioural science sources would give her infallible results. She assumed this because she equated scientific findings in general, and behavioural science findings in particular, with certainty. Irene found, however, that implementing the book’s recommendations did not automatically produce the predicted results.
If we, like Irene, seek out insights from popular behavioural science sources, then thinking more realistically about the theories and practices we discover is crucial. Popular science, due to its very effort to make scientific information accessible, may oversimplify complex concepts. This, in turn, can lead to overconfidence in findings.
Putting techniques touted by popular science sources into practice comes with cautions. Remember that science is a process of inquiry, relying on continuously testing and refining theories. The body of knowledge it generates evolves. When we recognise the iterative nature of scientific inquiry, and the often provisional quality of its claims, we are better able to be more realistic about the outcomes we anticipate.
This more realistic recognition also helps us avoid an overly determined understanding of human behaviour that is often expressed as: “We are hard-wired to do such and such.” Definitive evidence of our hardwiring may not exist. Moreover, this overconfident perspective can be disempowering and interfere with taking meaningful actions in our work and life.
Likewise, understanding the constraints of applying methods from the natural sciences to human behaviour gives us more insight into effective applications of behavioural science. A number of behavioural scientists themselves suggest that human behaviour is too complex to be accurately understood primarily through controlled experiments, surveys, and statistical hypothesis testing. Specific human behaviours have more causes to isolate than, say, a chemical reaction.
Humans are dynamic. We evolve, we have imagination, we can plan, and we have free choice. Because of this, isolating specific variables and drawing definitive conclusions about human actions is elusive. Our awareness of the constraints of behavioural science methods allows us to avoid overestimating the predictive power of many behavioural science claims. Through this awareness, we can also avoid the pitfall of assuming that we are easily manipulated into making pre-constructed choices.
To better benefit from the popular behavioural science sources we consult requires:
- Developing our own scientific mindset: Approach findings with the perspectives scientists themselves hold. Be mindful that findings of specific experiments and studies may be altered, if not disproven, by further research. Be clear that scientific research is an iterative, communal process.
- Managing our expectation for guaranteed results: We often experience pressure to have an answer for every question and an immediate, unerring solution to every problem. Counter this pressure by viewing problem solving as a process of discovery in which you acquire new knowledge and capabilities, regardless of the outcomes in a specific situation. Recognise that the knowledge you gain through the process of discovery strengthens your ability to solve problems and make more effective decisions in the future.
- Embracing the complexity of human behaviour: Consider what intrigues or fascinates you about people’s actions and decisions. Rather than focusing on “people problems” to be solved, focus on what you would like to learn for your own development. View your efforts to analyse and understand complexity as opportunities to stay engaged with your work and your personal relationships.
After her initial disappointment, Irene viewed the insights she gained from her popular behavioural science source in a more clinical, detached way. She conducted an agile experiment to test a specific technique. Irene tried her technique with a sample of new clients and compared the results with new clients who were not part of the experiment. She found that the behaviours of both sets of clients were the same. Based on the experiment, Irene concluded that her technique was not an effective strategy.
Like Irene, you can use scientific techniques yourself to determine whether the promises of behavioural science sources are relevant and useful for your decisions. At the same time, you become more discerning about applying expert findings rather than blindly and erroneously trusting in them.
Haywood Spangler, PhD, is the founder of Work & Think, where he helps clients navigate complex decisions through critical thinking and ethical reasoning. His new book is Reasoning for Business.