Global smartphone market defies headwinds with 1% growth

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The global smartphone market narrowly beat expectations in the first quarter of 2026, growing by 1% year-on-year.

However, according to the latest research from Omdia, this modest success may be the calm before a significant storm as supply chain bottlenecks and skyrocketing component costs begin to bite.

While shipments remained resilient, Omdia analysts suggest the figures were temporarily buoyed by “frontloading,” where vendors stocked up on inventory to get ahead of rising costs.

The financial pressure on manufacturers is becoming extreme. Prices for mobile DRAM and NAND flash memory surged by 90% in Q1 and are projected to climb another 30% in Q2.

Samsung reclaims top spot

Samsung has returned to the number one position globally, driven by the strong performance of its Galaxy S26 series. Pre-orders for the new flagship are up 10% compared to last year’s S25, helping the company offset delays in its mid-range refresh cycle. Apple also maintained a strong second-place position, with steady demand for the iPhone 17 series despite regional supply disruptions.

Outside the top two, the market is becoming increasingly polarised. Brands like Huawei and HONOR saw share gains through aggressive domestic performance and overseas expansion. Conversely, budget-focused vendors like Xiaomi and TRANSSION are facing tighter margins, as they have less “pricing power” to pass cost increases on to consumers.

Decline anticipated

The relief brought by Q1’s growth is expected to be short-lived. Omdia predicts a “demand shock” as manufacturers are forced to hike retail prices to protect their margins. To mitigate this, many brands are turning to aggressive trade-in offers and financing plans to keep devices affordable for the average consumer.

“The worst is still ahead,” warned Runar Bjorhovde, Principal Analyst at Omdia. With escalating logistics friction and macro volatility, Omdia has adjusted its full-year forecast downward, predicting that global shipments could decline by as much as 15% across 2026. For the industry, the remainder of the year will be a disciplined fight for survival, focused on “margin protection” rather than raw volume.

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