Here’s a conundrum for Republican politicians going into 2026, and even 2028. What do you do when you’ve turned the GOP into a Trump-branded, populist, antiestablishment party but you now control the government and it’s not going very well?
One time-tested answer: ritual human sacrifice. Which is why the next year is going to be a miserable one for House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Let’s set the scene.
The job of speaker never really has been nonpartisan. What’s changed in recent decades is that more and more power has been concentrated in the speaker’s office while, at the same time, the speaker is expected to defer to the president’s agenda when the same party holds the White House. This was the trend before Johnson got the job, but he’s taken it to extremes we’ve never witnessed.
Also, the speaker’s partisanship traditionally is focused on protecting the political interests of caucus members, not the president. And it’s usually tempered by the obligation to defend the integrity of the institution. Johnson has subordinated both obligations to the White House’s agenda to a remarkable degree.
President Trump took political ownership of the economy with his “Liberation Day” hooey in April and Congress let him, despite the fact various laws — and the Constitution itself — require Congress to play a major, even leading, role on trade.
Johnson then kept the House in recess throughout the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, at the White House’s behest, letting the GOP look AWOL and impotent.
Now, Johnson’s defenders deny he’s just Trump’s yes-man. Because Johnson’s a team player, they say, he voices his objections and concerns behind the scenes, not wanting to defy the president publicly. For instance, Johnson has reportedly told the White House the House GOP has no appetite for extending Obamacare premium subsidies.
But this just compounds the problem. By quietly coordinating with the White House, there’s nothing to dispel the impression that Johnson, and, by extension, the entire GOP caucus, owns the status quo.
Of course, being a rubber stamp for Trump and taking credit for the status quo wouldn’t be a problem for Republicans if Trump’s “Golden Age” talk about the economy and the country felt true. It doesn’t. Six in 10 Americans now think the country is on the wrong track.
In fairness, the economy isn’t doing terribly. But whatever its strengths, they aren’t being felt by many Americans. That’s why “affordability” has become the mantra everywhere in Washington except for the White House, where Trump says the economy has “never been better” and calls concerns about affordability a “hoax.” Trump literally is borrowing a page from President Biden, who also told voters not to believe their lying eyes — or wallets — about the cost of living.
Consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan, remains near historic lows. Trump’s overall approval rating is 41%, while independents and even some Trump voters are breaking from him. According to Gallup, fewer than 3 in 10 Americans think the economy is getting better, even as Trump continues to insist we’re living in a Golden Age.
But Trump’s hold over the base of the Republican party — and right-wing media — is still very strong. So the last thing any of them can do is directly attack the president and his policies, particularly when the House GOP either endorsed or pliantly acquiesced to them. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) openly defied Trump on the issue of the Epstein files, and shortly thereafter announced her retirement from Congress.
So what do you do when you need to prove you’re not a tool of the establishment and author of the status quo? Find a scapegoat. And right now, Johnson might as well be tied to a stake in the lion’s den.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) wanted to run for governor of New York by attacking the new socialist mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani. But Trump just launched a lovefest with him in the Oval Office. So now Stefanik is attacking Johnson. So too is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who’s running for governor in South Carolina.
“I certainly think that the current leadership, and specifically the speaker, needs to change the way that he approaches the job,” endangered GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) told CNN. “We need to actually go back to leading the House of Representatives.”
In a sense this is unfair to Johnson. He’s got the job only because he was willing to be Trump’s valet. But one of the first rules of the Trumpified GOP is that Trump never can fail, he only can be failed. Which is why Johnson is being set up to be MAGA’s fall guy. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.